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Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems,
Vol. 20, No. 1, March 2014
Multimodal Emotional State Estimation Model for Implementation of Intelligent Exhibition Services
Kichun Lee, So Yun Choi, Jae Kyeong Kim, and Hyunchul Ahn
Vol. 20, No. 1, Page: 1 ~ 14
10.13088/jiis.2014.20.1.001
Keywords : Emotional state estimation model, Multimodal approach, Intelligent exhibition service, Kinect sensor, Stratified sampling
Abstract
Both researchers and practitioners are showing an increased interested in interactive exhibition services. Interactive exhibition services are designed to directly respond to visitor responses in real time, so as to fully engage visitors’ interest and enhance their satisfaction. In order to install an effective interactive exhibition service, it is essential to adopt intelligent technologies that enable accurate estimation of a visitor’s emotional state from responses to exhibited stimulus. Studies undertaken so far have attempted to estimate the human emotional state, most of them doing so by gauging either facial expressions or audio responses. However, the most recent research suggests that, a multimodal approach that uses people’s multiple responses simultaneously may lead to better estimation. Given this context, we propose a new multimodal emotional state estimation model that uses various responses including facial expressions, gestures, and movements measured by the Microsoft Kinect Sensor. In order to effectively handle a large amount of sensory data, we propose to use stratified sampling-based MRA (multiple regression analysis) as our estimation method. To validate the usefulness of the proposed model, we collected 602,599 responses and emotional state data with 274 variables from 15 people. When we applied our model to the data set, we found that our model estimated the levels of valence and arousal in the 10~15% error range. Since our proposed model is simple and stable, we expect that it will be applied not only in intelligent exhibition services, but also in other areas such as e-learning and personalized advertising.
Smarter Classification for Imbalanced Data Set and Its Application to Patent Evaluation
Ohbyung Kwon, and Jonathan Sangyun Lee
Vol. 20, No. 1, Page: 15 ~ 34
10.13088/jiis.2014.20.1.015
Keywords : Data imbalance problem; Ensemble method; Intelligent systems; Vertical boosting
Abstract
Overall, accuracy as a performance measure does not fully consider modular accuracy: the accuracy of classifying 1 (or true) as 1 is not same as classifying 0 (or false) as 0. A smarter classification algorithm would optimize the classification rules to match the modular accuracies’ goals according to the nature of problem. Correspondingly, smarter algorithms must be both more generalized with respect to the nature of problems, and free from decretization, which may cause distortion of the real performance. Hence, in this paper, we propose a novel vertical boosting algorithm that improves modular accuracies. Rather than decretizing items, we use simple classifiers such as a regression model that accepts continuous data types. To improve the generalization, and to select a classification model that is well-suited to the nature of the problem domain, we developed a model selection algorithm with smartness. To show the soundness of the proposed method, we performed an experiment with a real-world application: predicting the intellectual properties of e-transaction technology, which had a 47,000+ record data set.
Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies
Junyoung Heo, and Jin Yong Yang
Vol. 20, No. 1, Page: 35 ~ 48
10.13088/jiis.2014.20.1.035
Keywords : Bankruptcy Forecasting, Construction, AdaBoost, Z-Score
Abstract
According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidationof construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies’ bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies.
The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry.
Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company’s financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms.
Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the “dangerous” category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the “safe” category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the “moderate” category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the “moderate” category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk.
Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company’s financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models.
Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups – large, medium, and small based on the company’s capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.
Product Community Analysis Using Opinion Mining and Network Analysis:Movie Performance Prediction Case
Yu Jin, Jungsoo Kim, and Jongwoo Kim
Vol. 20, No. 1, Page: 49 ~ 65
10.13088/jiis.2014.20.1.049
Keywords : Network Analysis, Online Word Of Mouth, Online Movie Community
Abstract
Word of Mouth (WOM) is a behavior used by consumers to transfer or communicate their product or service experience to other consumers. Due to the popularity of social media such as Facebook, Twitter, blogs, and online communities, electronic WOM (e-WOM) has become important to the success of products or services. As a result, most enterprises pay close attention to e-WOM for their products or services. This is especially important for movies, as these are experiential products.
This paper aims to identify the network factors of an online movie community that impact box office revenue using social network analysis. In addition to traditional WOM factors (volume and valence of WOM), network centrality measures of the online community are included as influential factors in box office revenue. Based on previous research results, we develop five hypotheses on the relationships between potential influential factors (WOM volume, WOM valence, degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality) and box office revenue. The first hypothesis is that the accumulated volume of WOM in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The second hypothesis is that the accumulated valence of WOM in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The third hypothesis is that the average of degree centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The fourth hypothesis is that the average of betweenness centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The fifth hypothesis is that the average of betweenness centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies.
To verify our research model, we collect movie review data from the Internet Movie Database (IMDb), which is a representative online movie community, and movie revenue data from the Box-Office-Mojo website. The movies in this analysis include weekly top-10 movies from September 1, 2012, to September 1, 2013, with in total. We collect movie metadata such as screening periods and user ratings; and community data in IMDb including reviewer identification, review content, review times, responder identification, reply content, reply times, and reply relationships. For the same period, the revenue data from Box-Office-Mojo is collected on a weekly basis. Movie community networks are constructed based on reply relationships between reviewers. Using a social network analysis tool, NodeXL, we calculate the averages of three centralities including degree, betweenness, and closeness centrality for each movie. Correlation analysis of focal variables and the dependent variable (final revenue) shows that three centrality measures are highly correlated, prompting us to perform multiple regressions separately with each centrality measure.
Consistent with previous research results, our regression analysis results show that the volume and valence of WOM are positively related to the final box office revenue of movies. Moreover, the averages of betweenness centralities from initial community networks impact the final movie revenues. However, both of the averages of degree centralities and closeness centralities do not influence final movie performance. Based on the regression results, three hypotheses, 1, 2, and 4, are accepted, and two hypotheses, 3 and 5, are rejected.
This study tries to link the network structure of e-WOM on online product communities with the product’s performance. Based on the analysis of a real online movie community, the results show that online community network structures can work as a predictor of movie performance. The results show that the betweenness centralities of the reviewer community are critical for the prediction of movie performance. However, degree centralities and closeness centralities do not influence movie performance. As future research topics, similar analyses are required for other product categories such as electronic goods and online content to generalize the studyresults.
The Brand Personality Effect: Communicating Brand Personality on Twitter and its Influence on Online Community Engagement
Ruth Angelie B. Cruz, and Hong Joo Lee
Vol. 20, No. 1, Page: 67 ~ 101
10.13088/jiis.2014.20.1.067
Keywords : Brand personality, Social media marketing, Opinion mining
Abstract
The use of new technology greatly shapes the marketing strategies used by companies to engage their consumers. Among these new technologies, social media is used to reach out to the organization’s audience online. One of the most popular social media channels to date is the microblogging platform Twitter. With 500 million tweets sent on average daily, the microblogging platform is definitely a rich source of data for researchers, and a lucrative marketing medium for companies. Nonetheless, one of the challenges for companies in developing an effective Twitter campaign is the limited theoretical and empirical evidence on the proper organizational usage of Twitter despite its potential advantages for a firm’s external communications. The current study aims to provide empirical evidence on how firms can utilize Twitter effectively in their marketing communications using the association between brand personality and brand engagement that several branding researchers propose.
The study extends Aaker’s previous empirical work on brand personality by applying the Brand Personality Scale to explore whether Twitter brand communities convey distinctive brand personalities online and its influence on the communities’ level or intensity of consumer engagement and sentiment quality. Moreover, the moderating effect of the product involvement construct in consumer engagement is also measured. By collecting data for a period of eight weeks using the publicly available Twitter application programming interface (API) from 23 accounts of Twitter-verified business-to-consumer (B2C) brands, we analyze the validity of the paper’s hypothesis by using computerized content analysis and opinion mining.
The studyis the first to compare Twitter marketing across organizations using the brand personality concept. It demonstrates a potential basis for Twitter strategies and discusses the benefits of these strategies, thus providing a framework of analysis for Twitter practice and strategic direction for companies developing their use of Twitter to communicate with their followers on this social media platform.
This study has four specific research objectives. The first objective is to examine the applicability of brand personality dimensions used in marketing research to online brand communities on Twitter. The second is to establish a connection between the congruence of offline and online brand personalities in building a successful social media brand community. Third, we test the moderating effect of product involvement in the effect of brand personality on brand community engagement. Lastly, we investigate the sentiment quality of consumer messages to the firms that succeed in communicating their brands’ personalities on Twitter.
Intellectual Reaction Differences among Market Participants to a Company’s Information Disclosure and Trading Behaviors on IPO KOSDAQ
Anzhela Tsoy, and Ki-Dong Lee
Vol. 20, No. 1, Page: 103 ~ 119
10.13088/jiis.2014.20.1.103
Keywords : Intellectual Reaction, Participant Behavior, Information Disclosure, IPO
Abstract
In this paper, we investigate intellectual reaction differences among market participants to various corporate information announcements and the main information prompting investors to trade. Our research is based on IPO companies listed on the KOSDAQ exchange from January 2000 to September 2012 and concentrates on three information disclosures – bonus issue, seasoned equity offer, and new investment in facilities announcements.
We find that intellectual market participants react positively to bonus issues and seasoned equity offers, but negatively to new investment announcements. Market trading volume increases before the positive events and all cgroups actively buy shares during these periods. For the negative events, only institution participants show active selling. Overall, institutions act as momentum traders, and individuals and foreigners as contrarian traders. We also discuss the implications of this study.
Short-Term Prediction of Vehicle Speed on Main City Roads using the k-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm
Mohammad Arif Rasyidi, Jeongmin Kim, and Kwang Ryel Ryu
Vol. 20, No. 1, Page: 121 ~ 131
10.13088/jiis.2014.20.1.121
Keywords : Speed prediction, Traffic analysis, Feature extraction, Time series, k-nearest neighbor
Abstract
Traffic speed is an important measure in transportation. It can be employed for various purposes, including traffic congestion detection, travel time estimation, and road design. Consequently, accurate speed prediction is essential in the development of intelligent transportation systems. In this paper, we present an analysis and speed prediction of a certain road section in Busan, South Korea. In previous works, only historical data of the target link are used for prediction. Here, we extract features from real traffic data by considering the neighboring links. After obtaining the candidate features, linear regression, model tree, and k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) are employed for both feature selection and speed prediction. The experiment results show that k-NN outperforms model tree and linear regression for the given dataset. Compared to the other predictors, k-NN significantly reduces the error measures that we use, including mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE).
A Study on the Effect of UsingSentiment Lexicon in Opinion Classification
Seungwoo Kim, and Namgyu Kim
Vol. 20, No. 1, Page: 133 ~ 148
10.13088/jiis.2014.20.1.133
Keywords : Sentiment Lexicon, BigData Analysis, Opinion Mining, Text Mining
Abstract
Recently, with the advent of various information channels, the number of has continued to grow. The main cause of this phenomenon can be found in the significant increase of unstructured data, as the use of smart devices enables users to create data in the form of text, audio, images, and video. In various types of unstructured data, the user’s opinion and a variety of information is clearly expressed in text data such as news, reports, papers, and various articles. Thus, active attempts have been made to create new value by analyzing these texts.
The representative techniques used in text analysis are text mining and opinion mining. These share certain important characteristics; for example, they not only use text documents as input data, but also use many natural language processing techniques such as filtering and parsing. Therefore, opinion mining is usually recognized as a sub-concept of text mining, or, in many cases, the two terms are used interchangeably in the literature. Suppose that the purpose of a certain classification analysis is to predict a positive or negative opinion contained in some documents. If we focus on the classification process, the analysis can be regarded as a traditional text mining case. However, if we observe that the target of the analysis is a positive or negative opinion, the analysis can be regarded as a typical example of opinion mining. In other words, two methods (i.e., text mining and opinion mining) are available for opinion classification. Thus, in order to distinguish between the two, a precise definition of each method is needed. In this paper, we found that it is very difficult to distinguish between the two methods clearly with respect to the purpose of analysis and the type of results.
We conclude that the most definitive criterion to distinguish text mining from opinion mining is whether an analysis utilizes any kind of sentiment lexicon. We first established two prediction models, one based on opinion mining and the other on text mining. Next, we compared the main processes used by the two prediction models. Finally, we compared their prediction accuracy. We then analyzed 2,000 movie reviews. The results revealed that the prediction model based on opinion mining showed higher average prediction accuracy compared to the text mining model. Moreover, in the lift chart generated by the opinion mining based model, the prediction accuracy for the documents with strong certainty was higher than that for the documents with weak certainty. Most of all, opinion mining has a meaningful advantage in that it can reduce learning time dramatically, because a sentiment lexicon generated once can be reused in a similar application domain. Additionally, the classification results can be clearly explained by using a sentiment lexicon.
This study has two limitations. First, the results of the experiments cannot be generalized, mainly because the experiment is limited to a small number of movie reviews. Additionally, various parameters in the parsing and filtering steps of the text mining may have affected the accuracy of the prediction models. However, this research contributes a performance and comparison of text mining analysis and opinion mining analysis for opinion classification. In future research, a more precise evaluation of the two methods should be made through intensive experiments.
An Ontology Model for Public Service Export Platform
Gang-Won Lee, Sei-Kwon Park, Seung-Wan Ryu, and Dong-Cheon Shin
Vol. 20, No. 1, Page: 149 ~ 161
10.13088/jiis.2014.20.1.149
Keywords : Ontology, Service Platform, Public Service Export, Simulator
Abstract
The export of domestic public services to overseas markets contains many potential obstacles, stemming from different export procedures, the target services, and socio-economic environments. In order to alleviate these problems, the business incubation platform as an open business ecosystem can be a powerful instrument to support the decisions taken by participants and stakeholders. In this paper, we propose an ontology model and its implementation processes for the business incubation platform with an open and pervasive architecture to support public service exports.
For the conceptual model of platform ontology, export case studies are used for requirements analysis. The conceptual model shows the basic structure, with vocabulary and its meaning, the relationship between ontologies, and key attributes. For the implementation and test of the ontology model, the logical structure is edited using Protégé editor. The core engine of the business incubation platform is the simulator module, where the various contexts of export businesses should be captured, defined, and shared with other modules through ontologies. It is well-known that an ontology, with which concepts and their relationships are represented using a shared vocabulary, is an efficient and effective tool for organizing meta-information to develop structural frameworks in a particular domain.
The proposed model consists of five ontologies derived from a requirements survey of major stakeholders and their operational scenarios: service, requirements, environment, enterprise, and county. The service ontology contains several components that can find and categorize public services through a case analysis of the public service export. Key attributes of the service ontology are composed of categories including objective, requirements, activity, and service. The objective category, which has sub-attributes including operational body (organization) and user, acts as a reference to search and classify public services. The requirements category relates to the functional needs at a particular phase of system (service) design or operation. Sub-attributes of requirements are user, application, platform, architecture, and social overhead. The activity category represents business processes during the operation and maintenance phase. The activity category also has sub-attributes including facility, software, and project unit. The service category, with sub-attributes such as target, time, and place, acts as a reference to sort and classify the public services. The requirements ontology is derived from the basic and common components of public services and target countries. The key attributes of the requirements ontology are business, technology, and constraints. Business requirements represent the needs of processes and activities for public service export; technology represents the technological requirements for the operation of public services; and constraints represent the business law, regulations, or cultural characteristics of the target country. The environment ontology is derived from case studies of target countries for public service operation. Key attributes of the environment ontology are user, requirements, and activity. A user includes stakeholders in public services, from citizens to operators and managers; the requirements attribute represents the managerial and physical needs during operation; the activity attribute represents business processes in detail. The enterprise ontology is introduced from a previous study, and its attributes are activity, organization, strategy, marketing, and time. The country ontology is derived from the demographic and geopolitical analysis of the target country, and its key attributes are economy, social infrastructure, law, regulation, customs, population, location, and development strategies.
The priority list for target services for a certain country and/or the priority list for target countries for a certain public services are generated by a matching algorithm. These lists are used as input seeds to simulate the consortium partners, and government's policies and programs. In the simulation, the environmental differences between Korea and the target country can be customized through a gap analysis and work-flow optimization process. When the process gap between Korea and the target country is too large for a single corporation to cover, a consortium is considered an alternative choice, and various alternatives are derived from the capability index of enterprises. For financial packages, a mix of various foreign aid funds can be simulated during this stage.
It is expected that the proposed ontology model and the business incubation platform can be used by various participants in the public service export market. It could be especially beneficial to small and medium businesses that have relatively fewer resources and experience with public service export. We also expect that the open and pervasive service architecture in a digital business ecosystem will help stakeholders find new opportunities through information sharing and collaboration on business processes.
Analysis of the Time-dependent Relation between TV Ratings and the Content of Microblogs
Joon Yeon Choeh, Haedeuk Baek, and Jinho Choi
Vol. 20, No. 1, Page: 163 ~ 176
10.13088/jiis.2014.20.1.163
Keywords : TV ratings, social media, microblog, twitter
Abstract
Social media is becoming the platform for users to communicate their activities, status, emotions, and experiences to other people. In recent years, microblogs, such as Twitter, have gained in popularity because of its ease of use, speed, and reach. Compared to a conventional web blog, a microblog lowers users’ efforts and investment for content generation by recommending shorter posts. There has been a lot research into capturing the social phenomena and analyzing the chatter of microblogs. However, measuring television ratings has been given little attention so far. Currently, the most common method to measure TV ratings uses an electronic metering device installed in a small number of sampled households.
Microblogs allow users to post short messages, share daily updates, and conveniently keep in touch. In a similar way, microblog users are interacting with each other while watching television or movies, or visiting a new place. In order to measure TV ratings, some features are significant during certain hours of the day, or days of the week, whereas these same features are meaningless during other time periods. Thus, the importance of features can change during the day, and a model capturing the time sensitive relevance is required to estimate TV ratings. Therefore, modeling time-related characteristics of features should be a key when measuring the TV ratings through microblogs.
We show that capturing time-dependency of features in measuring TV ratings is vitally necessary for improving their accuracy. To explore the relationship between the content of microblogs and TV ratings, we collected Twitter data using the Get Search component of the Twitter REST API from January 2013 to October 2013. There are about 300 thousand posts in our data set for the experiment. After excluding data such as adverting or promoted tweets, we selected 149 thousand tweets for analysis. The number of tweets reaches its maximum level on the broadcasting day and increases rapidly around the broadcasting time. This result is stems from the characteristics of the public channel, which broadcasts the program at the predetermined time.
From our analysis, we find that count-based features such as the number of tweets or retweets have a low correlation with TV ratings. This result implies that a simple tweet rate does not reflect the satisfaction or response to the TV programs. Content-based features extracted from the content of tweets have a relatively high correlation with TV ratings. Further, some emoticons or newly coined words thatare not tagged in the morpheme extraction process have a strong relationship with TV ratings. We find that there is a time-dependency in the correlation of features between the before and after broadcasting time. Since the TV program is broadcast at the predetermined time regularly, users post tweets expressing their expectation for the program or disappointment over not being able to watch the program. The highly correlated features before the broadcast are different from the features after broadcasting. This result explains that the relevance of words with TV programs can change according to the time of the tweets. Among the 336 words thatfulfill the minimum requirements for candidate features, 145 words have the highest correlation before the broadcasting time, whereas 68 words reach the highest correlation after broadcasting. Interestingly, some words thatexpress the impossibility of watching the program show a high relevance, despite containing a negative meaning.
Understanding the time-dependency of features can be helpful in improving the accuracy of TV ratings measurement. This research contributes a basis to estimate the response to or satisfaction with the broadcasted programs using the time dependency of words in Twitter chatter. More research is needed to refine the methodology for predicting or measuring TV ratings.
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