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Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems,
Vol. 20, No. 4, December 2014
Development of Market Growth Pattern Map Based on Growth Model and Self-organizing Map Algorithm: Focusing on ICT products
Do-Hyung Park, Jaekwon Chung, Yeo Jin Chung, and Dongwon Lee
Vol. 20, No. 4, Page: 1 ~ 23
http://dx.doi.org/10.13088/jiis.2014.20.4.01
Keywords : Market Growth Curve, Growth Model, Logistic Model, Gompertz Model, Bass Model, Self-Organizing Map
Abstract
Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models’ predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an N X N map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.
Analyzing the Issue Life Cycle by Mapping Inter-Period Issues
Myungsu Lim, and Namgyu Kim
Vol. 20, No. 4, Page: 25 ~ 41
http://dx.doi.org/10.13088/jiis.2014.20.4.25
Keywords : Issue Life Cycle, Issue Mapping, Issue Tracking, Text Mining, Topic Analysis
Abstract
Recently, the number of social media users has increased rapidly because of the prevalence of smart devices. As a result, the amount of real-time data has been increasing exponentially, which, in turn, is generating more interest in using such data to create added value. For instance, several attempts are being made to analyze the relevant search keywords that are frequently used on new portal sites and the words that are regularly mentioned on various social media in order to identify social issues. The technique of "topic analysis" is employed in order to identify topics and themes from a large amount of text documents. As one of the most prevalent applications of topic analysis, the technique of issue tracking investigates changes in the social issues that are identified through topic analysis. Currently, traditional issue tracking is conducted by identifying the main topics of documents that cover an entire period at the same time and analyzing the occurrence of each topic by the period of occurrence.
However, this traditional issue tracking approach has two limitations. First, when a new period is included, topic analysis must be repeated for all the documents of the entire period, rather than being conducted only on the new documents of the added period. This creates practical limitations in the form of significant time and cost burdens. Therefore, this traditional approach is difficult to apply in most applications that need to perform an analysis on the additional period. Second, the issue is not only generated and terminated constantly, but also one issue can sometimes be distributed into several issues or multiple issues can be integrated into one single issue. In other words, each issue is characterized by a life cycle that consists of the stages of creation, transition (merging and segmentation), and termination. The existing issue tracking methods do not address the connection and effect relationship between these issues.
The purpose of this study is to overcome the two limitations of the existing issue tracking method, one being the limitation regarding the analysis method and the other being the limitation involving the lack of consideration of the changeability of the issues. Let us assume that we perform multiple topic analysis for each multiple period. Then it is essential to map issues of different periods in order to trace trend of issues. However, it is not easy to discover connection between issues of different periods because the issues derived for each period mutually contain heterogeneity.
In this study, to overcome these limitations without having to analyze the entire period's documents simultaneously, the analysis can be performed independently for each period. In addition, we performed issue mapping to link the identified issues of each period. An integrated approach on each details period was presented, and the issue flow of the entire integrated period was depicted in this study. Thus, as the entire process of the issue life cycle, including the stages of creation, transition (merging and segmentation), and extinction, is identified and examined systematically, the changeability of the issues was analyzed in this study. The proposed methodology is highly efficient in terms of time and cost, as it sufficiently considered the changeability of the issues. Further, the results of this study can be used to adapt the methodology to a practical situation. By applying the proposed methodology to actual Internet news, the potential practical applications of the proposed methodology are analyzed. Consequently, the proposed methodology was able to extend the period of the analysis and it could follow the course of progress of each issue's life cycle. Further, this methodology can facilitate a clearer understanding of complex social phenomena using topic analysis.
An Optimized Combination of π-fuzzy Logic and Support Vector Machine for Stock Market Prediction
Tuanhung Dao, and Hyunchul Ahn
Vol. 20, No. 4, Page: 43 ~ 58
http://dx.doi.org/10.13088/jiis.2014.20.4.43
Keywords : Stock market prediction, Trading systems, π-fuzzy logic, Support vector machine, Genetic algorithm
Abstract
As the use of trading systems has increased rapidly, many researchers have become interested in developing effective stock market prediction models using artificial intelligence techniques. Stock market prediction involves multifaceted interactions between market-controlling factors and unknown random processes. A successful stock prediction model achieves the most accurate result from minimum input data with the least complex model. In this research, we develop a combination model of π-fuzzy logic and support vector machine (SVM) models, using a genetic algorithm to optimize the parameters of the SVM and π-fuzzy functions, as well as feature subset selection to improve the performance of stock market prediction. To evaluate the performance of our proposed model, we compare the performance of our model to other comparative models, including the logistic regression, multiple discriminant analysis, classification and regression tree, artificial neural network, SVM, and fuzzy SVM models, with the same data. The results show that our model outperforms all other comparative models in prediction accuracy as well as return on investment.
Critical Success Factor of Noble Payment System: Multiple Case Studies
Arum Park, and Kyoung Jun Lee
Vol. 20, No. 4, Page: 59 ~ 87
http://dx.doi.org/10.13088/jiis.2014.20.4.59
Keywords : Critical Success Factor; Payment Service; Business Model; Case Study; Literal Replication, Proposition Development, Proposition Testing; Non-Customer Analysis
Abstract
In MIS field, the researches on payment services are focused on adoption factors of payment service using behavior theories such as TRA(Theory of Reasoned Action), TAM(Technology Acceptance Model), and TPB (Theory of Planned Behavior). The previous researches presented various adoption factors according to types of payment service, nations, culture and so on even though adoption factors of identical payment service were presented differently by researchers. The payment service industry relatively has strong path dependency to the existing payment methods so that the research results on the identical payment service are different due to payment culture of nation.
This paper aims to suggest a successful adoption factor of noble payment service regardless of nation’s culture and characteristics of payment and prove it. In previous researches, common adoption factors of payment service are convenience, ease of use, security, convenience, speed etc. But real cases prove the fact that adoption factors that the previous researches present are not always critical to success to penetrate a market. For example, PayByPhone, NFC based parking payment service, successfully has penetrated to early market and grown. In contrast, Google Wallet service failed to be adopted to users despite NFC based payment method which provides convenience, security, ease of use.
As shown in upper case, there remains an unexplained aspect. Therefore, the present research question emerged from the question: “What is the more essential and fundamental factor that should takes precedence over factors such as provides convenience, security, ease of use for successful penetration to market”.
With these cases, this paper analyzes four cases predicted on the following hypothesis and demonstrates it. “To successfully penetrate a market and sustainably grow, new payment service should find non-customer of the existing payment service and provide noble payment method so that they can use payment method”.
We give plausible explanations for the hypothesis using multiple case studies. Diners club, Danal, PayPal, Square were selected as a typical and successful cases in each category of payment service. The discussion on cases is primarily non-customer analysis that noble payment service targets on to find the most crucial factor in the early market, we does not attempt to consider factors for business growth. We clarified three-tier non-customer of the payment method that new payment service targets on and elaborated how new payment service satisfy them.
In case of credit card, this payment service target first tier of non-customer who can’t pay for because they don’t have any cash temporarily but they have regular income. So credit card provides an opportunity which they can do economic activities by delaying the date of payment.
In a result of wireless phone payment’s case study, this service targets on second of non-customer who can’t use online payment because they concern about security or have to take a complex process and learn how to use online payment method. Therefore, wireless phone payment provides very convenient payment method. Especially, it made group of young pay for a little money without a credit card.
Case study result of PayPal, online payment service, shows that it targets on second tier of non-customer who reject to use online payment service because of concern about sensitive information leaks such as passwords and credit card details. Accordingly, PayPal service allows users to pay online without a provision of sensitive information.
Final Square case result, Mobile POS –based payment service, also shows that it targets on second tier of non-customer who can’t individually transact offline because of cash’s shortness. Hence, Square provides dongle which function as POS by putting dongle in earphone terminal.
As a result, four cases made non-customer their customer so that they could penetrate early market and had been extended their market share.
Consequently, all cases supported the hypothesis and it is highly probable according to ‘analytic generation’ that case study methodology suggests.
We present for judging the quality of research designs the following. Construct validity, internal validity, external validity, reliability are common to all social science methods, these have been summarized in numerous textbooks(Yin, 2014). In case study methodology, these also have served as a framework for assessing a large group of case studies (Gibbert, Ruigrok & Wicki, 2008). Construct validity is to identify correct operational measures for the concepts being studied. To satisfy construct validity, we use multiple sources of evidence such as the academic journals, magazine and articles etc.
Internal validity is to seek to establish a causal relationship, whereby certain conditions are believed to lead to other conditions, as distinguished from spurious relationships. To satisfy internal validity, we do explanation building through four cases analysis. External validity is to define the domain to which a study’s findings can be generalized. To satisfy this, replication logic in multiple case studies is used.
Reliability is to demonstrate that the operations of a study –such as the data collection procedures- can be repeated, with the same results. To satisfy this, we use case study protocol.
In Korea, the competition among stakeholders over mobile payment industry is intensifying. Not only main three Telecom Companies but also Smartphone companies and service provider like KakaoTalk announced that they would enter into mobile payment industry. Mobile payment industry is getting competitive. But it doesn't still have momentum effect notwithstanding positive presumptions that will grow very fast.
Mobile payment services are categorized into various technology based payment service such as IC mobile card and Application payment service of cloud based, NFC, sound wave, BLE(Bluetooth Low Energy), Biometric recognition technology etc. Especially, mobile payment service is discontinuous innovations that users should change their behavior and noble infrastructure should be installed.
These require users to learn how to use it and cause infra- installation cost to shopkeepers. Additionally, payment industry has the strong path dependency. In spite of these obstacles, mobile payment service which should provide dramatically improved value as a products and service of discontinuous innovations is focusing on convenience and security, convenience and so on.
We suggest the following to success mobile payment service. First, non-customers of the existing payment service need to be identified. Second, needs of them should be taken. Then, noble payment service provides non-customer who can’t pay by the previous payment method to payment method.
In conclusion, mobile payment service can create new market and will result in extension of payment market.
Visualizing the Results of Opinion Mining from Social Media Contents: Case Study of a Noodle Company
Yoosin Kim, Do Young Kwon, and Seung Ryul Jeong
Vol. 20, No. 4, Page: 89 ~ 105
http://dx.doi.org/10.13088/jiis.2014.20.4.89
Keywords : Opinion Mining, Visualization, Social Media, Market Intelligence, Food Industry
Abstract
After emergence of Internet, social media with highly interactive Web 2.0 applications has provided very user friendly means for consumers and companies to communicate with each other. Users have routinely published contents involving their opinions and interests in social media such as blogs, forums, chatting rooms, and discussion boards, and the contents are released real-time in the Internet. For that reason, many researchers and marketers regard social media contents as the source of information for business analytics to develop business insights, and many studies have reported results on mining business intelligence from Social media content. In particular, opinion mining and sentiment analysis, as a technique to extract, classify, understand, and assess the opinions implicit in text contents, are frequently applied into social media content analysis because it emphasizes determining sentiment polarity and extracting authors' opinions. A number of frameworks, methods, techniques and tools have been presented by these researchers. However, we have found some weaknesses from their methods which are often technically complicated and are not sufficiently user-friendly for helping business decisions and planning.
In this study, we attempted to formulate a more comprehensive and practical approach to conduct opinion mining with visual deliverables. First, we described the entire cycle of practical opinion mining using Social media content from the initial data gathering stage to the final presentation session. Our proposed approach to opinion mining consists of four phases: collecting, qualifying, analyzing, and visualizing. In the first phase, analysts have to choose target social media. Each target media requires different ways for analysts to gain access. There are open-API, searching tools, DB2DB interface, purchasing contents, and so son. Second phase is pre-processing to generate useful materials for meaningful analysis. If we do not remove garbage data, results of social media analysis will not provide meaningful and useful business insights. To clean social media data, natural language processing techniques should be applied. The next step is the opinion mining phase where the cleansed social media content set is to be analyzed. The qualified data set includes not only user-generated contents but also content identification information such as creation date, author name, user id, content id, hit counts, review or reply, favorite, etc. Depending on the purpose of the analysis, researchers or data analysts can select a suitable mining tool. Topic extraction and buzz analysis are usually related to market trends analysis, while sentiment analysis is utilized to conduct reputation analysis. There are also various applications, such as stock prediction, product recommendation, sales forecasting, and so on. The last phase is visualization and presentation of analysis results. The major focus and purpose of this phase are to explain results of analysis and help users to comprehend its meaning. Therefore, to the extent possible, deliverables from this phase should be made simple, clear and easy to understand, rather than complex and flashy. To illustrate our approach, we conducted a case study on a leading Korean instant noodle company. We targeted the leading company, NS Food, with 66.5% of market share; the firm has kept No. 1 position in the Korean “Ramen” business for several decades. We collected a total of 11,869 pieces of contents including blogs, forum contents and news articles. After collecting social media content data, we generated instant noodle business specific language resources for data manipulation and analysis using natural language processing. In addition, we tried to classify contents in more detail categories such as marketing features, environment, reputation, etc. In those phase, we used free ware software programs such as TM, KoNLP, ggplot2 and plyr packages in R project.
As the result, we presented several useful visualization outputs like domain specific lexicons, volume and sentiment graphs, topic word cloud, heat maps, valence tree map, and other visualized images to provide vivid, full-colored examples using open library software packages of the R project. Business actors can quickly detect areas by a swift glance that are weak, strong, positive, negative, quiet or loud. Heat map is able to explain movement of sentiment or volume in categories and time matrix which shows density of color on time periods. Valence tree map, one of the most comprehensive and holistic visualization models, should be very helpful for analysts and decision makers to quickly understand the “big picture” business situation with a hierarchical structure since tree-map can present buzz volume and sentiment with a visualized result in a certain period.
This case study offers real-world business insights from market sensing which would demonstrate to practical-minded business users how they can use these types of results for timely decision making in response to on-going changes in the market. We believe our approach can provide practical and reliable guide to opinion mining with visualized results that are immediately useful, not just in food industry but in other industries as well.
Recommender Systems using Structural Hole and Collaborative Filtering
Mingun Kim, and Kyoung-jae Kim
Vol. 20, No. 4, Page: 107 ~ 120
http://dx.doi.org/10.13088/jiis.2014.20.4.107
Keywords : Structural hole; Collaborative filtering; Cluster-indexing; Social network analysis; Recommender system
Abstract
This study proposes a novel recommender system using the structural hole analysis to reflect qualitative and emotional information in recommendation process. Although collaborative filtering (CF) is known as the most popular recommendation algorithm, it has some limitations including scalability and sparsity problems. The scalability problem arises when the volume of users and items become quite large. It means that CF cannot scale up due to large computation time for finding neighbors from the user-item matrix as the number of users and items increases in real-world e-commerce sites. Sparsity is a common problem of most recommender systems due to the fact that users generally evaluate only a small portion of the whole items. In addition, the cold-start problem is the special case of the sparsity problem when users or items newly added to the system with no ratings at all. When the user’s preference evaluation data is sparse, two users or items are unlikely to have common ratings, and finally, CF will predict ratings using a very limited number of similar users. Moreover, it may produces biased recommendations because similarity weights may be estimated using only a small portion of rating data.
In this study, we suggest a novel limitation of the conventional CF. The limitation is that CF does not consider qualitative and emotional information about users in the recommendation process because it only utilizes user’s preference scores of the user-item matrix. To address this novel limitation, this study proposes cluster-indexing CF model with the structural hole analysis for recommendations. In general, the structural hole means a location which connects two separate actors without any redundant connections in the network. The actor who occupies the structural hole can easily access to non-redundant, various and fresh information. Therefore, the actor who occupies the structural hole may be a important person in the focal network and he or she may be the representative person in the focal subgroup in the network. Thus, his or her characteristics may represent the general characteristics of the users in the focal subgroup. In this sense, we can distinguish friends and strangers of the focal user utilizing the structural hole analysis.
This study uses the structural hole analysis to select structural holes in subgroups as an initial seeds for a cluster analysis. First, we gather data about users’ preference ratings for items and their social network information. For gathering research data, we develop a data collection system. Then, we perform structural hole analysis and find structural holes of social network. Next, we use these structural holes as cluster centroids for the clustering algorithm. Finally, this study makes recommendations using CF within user’s cluster, and compare the recommendation performances of comparative models.
For implementing experiments of the proposed model, we composite the experimental results from two experiments. The first experiment is the structural hole analysis. For the first one, this study employs a software package for the analysis of social network data – UCINET version 6. The second one is for performing modified clustering, and CF using the result of the cluster analysis. We develop an experimental system using VBA (Visual Basic for Application) of Microsoft Excel 2007 for the second one. This study designs to analyzing clustering based on a novel similarity measure – Pearson correlation between user preference rating vectors for the modified clustering experiment. In addition, this study uses ‘all-but-one’ approach for the CF experiment.
In order to validate the effectiveness of our proposed model, we apply three comparative types of CF models to the same dataset. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the other comparative models. In especial, the proposed model significantly performs better than two comparative modes with the cluster analysis from the statistical significance test. However, the difference between the proposed model and the naive model does not have statistical significance.
Bankruptcy prediction using an improved bagging ensemble
Sung-Hwan Min
Vol. 20, No. 4, Page: 121 ~ 139
http://dx.doi.org/10.13088/jiis.2014.20.4.121
Keywords : Bagging, Instance Selection, Ensemble, Bankruptcy Prediction, Genetic Algorithms
Abstract
Predicting corporate failure has been an important topic in accounting and finance. The costs associated with bankruptcy are high, so the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction is greatly important for financial institutions. Lots of researchers have dealt with the topic associated with bankruptcy prediction in the past three decades. The current research attempts to use ensemble models for improving the performance of bankruptcy prediction. Ensemble classification is to combine individually trained classifiers in order to gain more accurate prediction than individual models. Ensemble techniques are shown to be very useful for improving the generalization ability of the classifier.
Bagging is the most commonly used methods for constructing ensemble classifiers. In bagging, the different training data subsets are randomly drawn with replacement from the original training dataset. Base classifiers are trained on the different bootstrap samples. Instance selection is to select critical instances while deleting and removing irrelevant and harmful instances from the original set. Instance selection and bagging are quite well known in data mining. However, few studies have dealt with the integration of instance selection and bagging. This study proposes an improved bagging ensemble based on instance selection using genetic algorithms (GA) for improving the performance of SVM. GA is an efficient optimization procedure based on the theory of natural selection and evolution. GA uses the idea of survival of the fittest by progressively accepting better solutions to the problems. GA searches by maintaining a population of solutions from which better solutions are created rather than making incremental changes to a single solution to the problem. The initial solution population is generated randomly and evolves into the next generation by genetic operators such as selection, crossover and mutation. The solutions coded by strings are evaluated by the fitness function.
The proposed model consists of two phases: GA based Instance Selection and Instance based Bagging. In the first phase, GA is used to select optimal instance subset that is used as input data of bagging model. In this study, the chromosome is encoded as a form of binary string for the instance subset. In this phase, the population size was set to 100 while maximum number of generations was set to 150. We set the crossover rate and mutation rate to 0.7 and 0.1 respectively. We used the prediction accuracy of model as the fitness function of GA. SVM model is trained on training data set using the selected instance subset. The prediction accuracy of SVM model over test data set is used as fitness value in order to avoid overfitting. In the second phase, we used the optimal instance subset selected in the first phase as input data of bagging model. We used SVM model as base classifier for bagging ensemble. The majority voting scheme was used as a combining method in this study.
This study applies the proposed model to the bankruptcy prediction problem using a real data set from Korean companies. The research data used in this study contains 1832 externally non-audited firms which filed for bankruptcy (916 cases) and non-bankruptcy (916 cases). Financial ratios categorized as stability, profitability, growth, activity and cash flow were investigated through literature review and basic statistical methods and we selected 8 financial ratios as the final input variables. We separated the whole data into three subsets as training, test and validation data set. In this study, we compared the proposed model with several comparative models including the simple individual SVM model, the simple bagging model and the instance selection based SVM model. The McNemar tests were used to examine whether the proposed model significantly outperforms the other models. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the other models.
A Intelligent Diagnostic Model that base on Case-Based Reasoning according to Korea – International Financial Reporting Standards
Hyoung-Yong Lee
Vol. 20, No. 4, Page: 141 ~ 154
http://dx.doi.org/10.13088/jiis.2014.20.4.141
Keywords : Case based reasoning, Self-organizing maps, Account receivable
Abstract
The adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) is the one of important issues in the recent accounting research because the change from local GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) to IFRS has a substantial effect on accounting information. Over 100 countries including Australia, China, Canada and the European Union member countries adopt IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) for financial reporting purposes, and several more including the United States and Japan are considering the adoption of IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). In Korea, 61 firms voluntarily adopted Korean International Financial Reporting Standard (K-IFRS) in 2009 and 2010 and all listed firms mandatorily adopted K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards) in 2011. The adoption of IFRS is expected to increase financial statement comparability, improve corporate transparency, increase the quality of financial reporting, and hence, provide benefits to investors This study investigates whether recognized accounts receivable discounting (AR discounting) under Korean International Financial Reporting Standard (K-IFRS) is more value relevant than disclosed AR discounting under Korean Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (K-GAAP). Because more rigorous standards are applied to the derecognition of AR discounting under K-IFRS(Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards), most AR discounting is recognized as a short term debt instead of being disclosed as a contingent liability unless all risks and rewards are transferred. In this research, I try to figure out industrial responses to the changes in accounting rules for the treatment of accounts receivable toward more strict standards in the recognition of sales which occurs with the adoption of Korea International Financial Reporting Standard. This study examines whether accounting information is more value-relevant, especially information on accounts receivable discounting (hereinafter, AR discounting) is value-relevant under K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards). First, note that AR discounting involves the transfer of financial assets. Under Korean Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (K-GAAP), when firms discount AR to banks before the AR maturity, firms conventionally remove AR from the balance-sheet and report losses from AR discounting and disclose and explain the transactions in the footnotes. Under K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards), however, most firms keep AR and add a short-term debt as same as discounted AR. This process increases the firms’ leverage ratio and raises the concern to the firms about investors’ reactions to worsening capital structures. Investors may experience the change in perceived risk of the firm. In the study sample, the average of AR discounting is 75.3 billion won (maximum 3.6 trillion won and minimum 18 million won), which is, on average 7.0% of assets (maximum 38.6% and minimum 0.002%), 26.2% of firms’ accounts receivable (maximum 92.5% and minimum 0.003%) and 13.5% of total liabilities (maximum 69.5% and minimum 0.004%). After the adoption of K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards), total liabilities increase by 13%p on average (maximum 103%p and minimum 0.004%p) attributable to AR discounting. The leverage ratio (total liabilities/total assets) increases by an average 2.4%p (maximum 16%p and minimum 0.001%p) and debt-to-equity ratio increases by average 14.6%p (maximum 134%p and minimum 0.006%) attributable to the recognition of AR discounting as a short-term debt. The structure of debts and equities of the companies engaging in factoring transactions are likely to be affected in the changes of accounting rule. I suggest that the changes in accounting provisions subsequent to Korea International Financial Reporting Standard adoption caused significant influence on the structure of firm’s asset and liabilities. Due to this changes, the treatment of account receivable discounting have become critical. This paper proposes an intelligent diagnostic system for estimating negative impact on stock value with self-organizing maps and case based reasoning. To validate the usefulness of this proposed model, real data was analyzed. In order to get the significance of this proposed model, several models were compared to the research model. I found out that this proposed model provides satisfactory results with compared models.
A study on the use of a Business Intelligence system : the role of explanations
YoungOk Kwon
Vol. 20, No. 4, Page: 155 ~ 169
http://dx.doi.org/10.13088/jiis.2014.20.4.155
Keywords : Business Intelligence system, explanation, advice-following, decision-making
Abstract
With the rapid advances in technologies, organizations are more likely to depend on information systems in their decision-making processes. Business Intelligence (BI) systems, in particular, have become a mainstay in dealing with complex problems in an organization, partly because a variety of advanced computational methods from statistics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence can be applied to solve business problems such as demand forecasting. In addition to the ability to analyze past and present trends, these predictive analytics capabilities provide huge value to an organization’s ability to respond to change in markets, business risks, and customer trends. While the performance effects of BI system use in organization settings have been studied, it has been little discussed on the use of predictive analytics technologies embedded in BI systems for forecasting tasks. Thus, this study aims to find important factors that can help to take advantage of the benefits of advanced technologies of a BI system. More generally, a BI system can be viewed as an advisor, defined as the one that formulates judgments or recommends alternatives and communicates these to the person in the role of the judge, and the information generated by the BI system as advice that a decision maker (judge) can follow. Thus, we refer to the findings from the advice-giving and advice-taking literature, focusing on the role of explanations of the system in users’ advice taking. It has been shown that advice discounting could occur when an advisor’s reasoning or evidence justifying the advisor’s decision is not available. However, the majority of current BI systems merely provide a number, which may influence decision makers in accepting the advice and inferring the quality of advice. We in this study explore the following key factors that can influence users’ advice taking within the setting of a BI system: explanations on how the box-office grosses are predicted, types of advisor, i.e., system (data mining technique) or human-based business advice mechanisms such as prediction markets (aggregated human advice) and human advisors (individual human expert advice), users’ evaluations of the provided advice, and individual differences in decision-makers.
Each subject performs the following four tasks, by going through a series of display screens on the computer. First, given the information of the given movie such as director and genre, the subjects are asked to predict the opening weekend box office of the movie. Second, in light of the information generated by an advisor, the subjects are asked to adjust their original predictions, if they desire to do so. Third, they are asked to evaluate the value of the given information (e.g., perceived usefulness, trust, satisfaction). Lastly, a short survey is conducted to identify individual differences that may affect advice-taking. The results from the experiment show that subjects are more likely to follow system- generated advice than human advice when the advice is provided with an explanation. When the subjects as system users think the information provided by the system is useful, they are also more likely to take the advice. In addition, individual differences affect advice-taking. The subjects with more expertise on advisors or that tend to agree with others adjust their predictions, following the advice. On the other hand, the subjects with more knowledge on movies are less affected by the advice and their final decisions are close to their original predictions.
The advances in predictive analytics of a BI system demonstrate a great potential to support increasingly complex business decisions. This study shows how the designs of a BI system can play a role in influencing users’ acceptance of the system-generated advice, and the findings provide valuable insights on how to leverage the advanced predictive analytics of the BI system in an organization's forecasting practices.
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