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Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems,
Vol. 21, No. 3, September 2015
|Bankruptcy Type Prediction Using A Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks Model
Vol. 21, No. 3, Page: 1 ~ 21
Keywords : Bankruptcy prediction, Bankruptcy type classification, Artificial neural network, Back-propagation neural network, Self-organizing map
The prediction of bankruptcy has been extensively studied in the accounting and finance field. It can have an important impact on lending decisions and the profitability of financial institutions in terms of risk management. Many researchers have focused on constructing a more robust bankruptcy prediction model. Early studies primarily used statistical techniques such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis for bankruptcy prediction. However, many studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, case-based reasoning (CBR), and support vector machine (SVM), have been outperforming statistical techniques since 1990s for business classification problems because statistical methods have some rigid assumptions in their application. In previous studies on corporate bankruptcy, many researchers have focused on developing a bankruptcy prediction model using financial ratios. However, there are few studies that suggest the specific types of bankruptcy. Previous bankruptcy prediction models have generally been interested in predicting whether or not firms will become bankrupt. Most of the studies on bankruptcy types have focused on reviewing the previous literature or performing a case study. Thus, this study develops a model using data mining techniques for predicting the specific types of bankruptcy as well as the occurrence of bankruptcy in Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms in terms of profitability, stability, and activity index. Thus, firms will be able to prevent it from occurring in advance.
We propose a hybrid approach using two artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of bankruptcy types. The first is a back-propagation neural network (BPN) model using supervised learning for bankruptcy prediction and the second is a self-organizing map (SOM) model using unsupervised learning to classify bankruptcy data into several types. Based on the constructed model, we predict the bankruptcy of companies by applying the BPN model to a validation set that was not utilized in the development of the model. This allows for identifying the specific types of bankruptcy by using bankruptcy data predicted by the BPN model. We calculated the average of selected input variables through statistical test for each cluster to interpret characteristics of the derived clusters in the SOM model. Each cluster represents bankruptcy type classified through data of bankruptcy firms, and input variables indicate financial ratios in interpreting the meaning of each cluster.
The experimental result shows that each of five bankruptcy types has different characteristics according to financial ratios. Type 1 (severe bankruptcy) has inferior financial statements except for EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to sales based on the clustering results. Type 2 (lack of stability) has a low quick ratio, low stockholder’s equity to total assets, and high total borrowings to total assets. Type 3 (lack of activity) has a slightly low total asset turnover and fixed asset turnover. Type 4 (lack of profitability) has low retained earnings to total assets and EBITDA to sales which represent the indices of profitability. Type 5 (recoverable bankruptcy) includes firms that have a relatively good financial condition as compared to other bankruptcy types even though they are bankrupt. Based on the findings, researchers and practitioners engaged in the credit evaluation field can obtain more useful information about the types of corporate bankruptcy.
In this paper, we utilized the financial ratios of firms to classify bankruptcy types. It is important to select the input variables that correctly predict bankruptcy and meaningfully classify the type of bankruptcy. In a further study, we will include non-financial factors such as size, industry, and age of the firms. Thus, we can obtain realistic clustering results for bankruptcy types by combining qualitative factors and reflecting the domain knowledge of experts.
|Development of the Accident Prediction Model for Enlisted Men through an Integrated Approach to Datamining and Textmining
Vol. 21, No. 3, Page: 23 ~ 29
Keywords : data mining, decision tree, topic analysis, SNS, accident of enlisted men
In this paper, we report what we have observed with regards to a prediction model for the military based on enlisted men’s internal(cumulative records) and external data(SNS data). This work is significant in the military’s efforts to supervise them. In spite of their effort, many commanders have failed to prevent accidents by their subordinates. One of the important duties of officers’ work is to take care of their subordinates in prevention unexpected accidents. However, it is hard to prevent accidents so we must attempt to determine a proper method. Our motivation for presenting this paper is to mate it possible to predict accidents using enlisted men’s internal and external data.
The biggest issue facing the military is the occurrence of accidents by enlisted men related to maladjustment and the relaxation of military discipline. The core method of preventing accidents by soldiers is to identify problems and manage them quickly. Commanders predict accidents by interviewing their soldiers and observing their surroundings. It requires considerable time and effort and results in a significant difference depending on the capabilities of the commanders. In this paper, we seek to predict accidents with objective data which can easily be obtained. Recently, records of enlisted men as well as SNS communication between commanders and soldiers, make it possible to predict and prevent accidents.
This paper concerns the application of data mining to identify their interests, predict accidents and make use of internal and external data (SNS). We propose both a topic analysis and decision tree method. The study is conducted in two steps. First, topic analysis is conducted through the SNS of enlisted men. Second, the decision tree method is used to analyze the internal data with the results of the first analysis. The dependent variable for these analysis is the presence of any accidents. In order to analyze their SNS, we require tools such as text mining and topic analysis. We used SAS Enterprise Miner 12.1, which provides a text miner module. Our approach for finding their interests is composed of three main phases; collecting, topic analysis, and converting topic analysis results into points for using independent variables. In the first phase, we collect enlisted men’s SNS data by commender’s ID. After gathering unstructured SNS data, the topic analysis phase extracts issues from them. For simplicity, 5 topics(vacation, friends, stress, training, and sports) are extracted from 20,000 articles. In the third phase, using these 5 topics, we quantify them as personal points. After quantifying their topic, we include these results in independent variables which are composed of 15 internal data sets. Then, we make two decision trees. The first tree is composed of their internal data only. The second tree is composed of their external data(SNS) as well as their internal data. After that, we compare the results of misclassification from SAS E-miner. The first model’s misclassification is 12.1%. On the other hand, second model’s misclassification is 7.8%. This method predicts accidents with an accuracy of approximately 92%. The gap of the two models is 4.3%. Finally, we test if the difference between them is meaningful or not, using the McNemar test. The result of test is considered relevant.(p-value : 0.0003)
This study has two limitations. First, the results of the experiments cannot be generalized, mainly because the experiment is limited to a small number of enlisted men’s data. Additionally, various independent variables used in the decision tree model are used as categorical variables instead of continuous variables. So it suffers a loss of information.
In spite of extensive efforts to provide prediction models for the military, commanders’ predictions are accurate only when they have sufficient data about their subordinates. Our proposed methodology can provide support to decision-making in the military. This study is expected to contribute to the prevention of accidents in the military based on scientific analysis of enlisted men and proper management of them.
|A Study on the Impact Factors of Contents Diffusion in Youtube using Integrated Content Network Analysis
Vol. 21, No. 3, Page: 41 ~ 58
Keywords : Content Network; Youtube; Difussion Factors; Social Media; Influencing Factor
Social media is an emerging issue in content services and in current business environment. YouTube is the most representative social media service in the world. YouTube is different from other conventional content services in its open user participation and contents creation methods. To promote a content in YouTube, it is important to understand the diffusion phenomena of contents and the network structural characteristics. Most previous studies analyzed impact factors of contents diffusion from the view point of general behavioral factors. Currently some researchers use network structure factors. However, these two approaches have been used separately. However this study tries to analyze the general impact factors on the view count and content based network structures all together. In addition, when building a content based network, this study forms the network structure by analyzing user comments on 22,370 contents of YouTube not based on the individual user based network.
From this study, we re-proved statistically the causal relations between view count and not only general factors but also network factors. Moreover by analyzing this integrated research model, we found that these factors affect the view count of YouTube according to the following order; Uploader Followers, Video Age, Betweenness Centrality, Comments, Closeness Centrality, Clustering Coefficient and Rating. However Degree Centrality and Eigenvector Centrality affect the view count negatively.
From this research some strategic points for the utilizing of contents diffusion are as followings. First, it is needed to manage general factors such as the number of uploader followers or subscribers, the video age, the number of comments, average rating points, and etc. The impact of average rating points is not so much important as we thought before. However, it is needed to increase the number of uploader followers strategically and sustain the contents in the service as long as possible.
Second, we need to pay attention to the impacts of betweenness centrality and closeness centrality among other network factors. Users seems to search the related subject or similar contents after watching a content. It is needed to shorten the distance between other popular contents in the service. Namely, this study showed that it is beneficial for increasing view counts by decreasing the number of search attempts and increasing similarity with many other contents. This is consistent with the result of the clustering coefficient impact analysis.
Third, it is important to notice the negative impact of degree centrality and eigenvector centrality on the view count. If the number of connections with other contents is too much increased it means there are many similar contents and eventually it might distribute the view counts. Moreover, too high eigenvector centrality means that there are connections with popular contents around the content, and it might lose the view count because of the impact of the popular contents. It would be better to avoid connections with too powerful popular contents.
From this study we analyzed the phenomenon and verified diffusion factors of Youtube contents by using an integrated model consisting of general factors and network structure factors. From the viewpoints of social contribution, this study might provide useful information to music or movie industry or other contents vendors for their effective contents services. This research provides basic schemes that can be applied strategically in online contents marketing.
One of the limitations of this study is that this study formed a contents based network for the network structure analysis. It might be an indirect method to see the content network structure. We can use more various methods to establish direct content network. Further researches include more detailed researches like an analysis according to the types of contents or domains or characteristics of the contents or users, and etc.
|Predicting link of R&D network to stimulate collaboration among education, industry, and research
Vol. 21, No. 3, Page: 59 ~ 75
Keywords : Industry-university, Network analysis, activation, National R&D, link prediction
The recent global trends display expansion and growing solidity in both cooperative collaboration between industry, education, and research and R&D network systems. A greater support for the network and cooperative research sector would open greater possibilities for the evolution of new scholar and industrial fields and the development of new theories evoked from synergized educational research.
Similarly, the national need for a strategy that can most efficiently and effectively support R&D network that are established through the government’s R&D project research is on the rise.
Despite the growing urgency, due to the habitual dependency on simple individual personal information data regarding R&D industry participants and generalized statistical data references, the policies concerning network system are disappointing and inadequate.
Accordingly, analyses of the relationships involved for each subject who is participating in the R&D industry was conducted and on the foundation of an educational-industrial-research network system, possible changes within and of the network that may arise were predicted.
To predict the R&D network transitions, Common Neighbor and Jaccard’s Coefficient models were designated as the basic foundational models, upon which a new prediction model was proposed to address the limitations of the two aforementioned former models and to increase the accuracy of Link Prediction, with which a comparative analysis was made between the two models. Through the effective predictions regarding R&D network changes and transitions, such study result serves as a stepping-stone for an establishment of a prospective strategy that supports a desirable educational-industrial-research network and proposes a measure to promote the national policy to one that can effectively and efficiently sponsor integrated R&D industries.
Though both weighted applications of Common Neighbor and Jaccard’s Coefficient models provided positive outcomes, improved accuracy was comparatively more prevalent in the weighted Common Neighbor. An un-weighted Common Neighbor model predicted 650 out of 4,136 whereas a weighted Common Neighbor model predicted 50 more results at a total of 700 predictions. While the Jaccard’s model demonstrated slight performance improvements in numeric terms, the differences were found to be insignificant.
|Social Tagging-based Recommendation Platform for Patented Technology Transfer
Vol. 21, No. 3, Page: 77 ~ 101
Keywords : Patent, Recommender Systems, IPC, TF-IDF, Social Tagging
Korea has witnessed an increasing number of domestic patent applications, but a majority of them are not utilized to their maximum potential but end up becoming obsolete. According to the 2012 National Congress’ Inspection of Administration, about 73% of patents possessed by universities and public-funded research institutions failed to lead to creating social values, but remain latent. One of the main problem of this issue is that patent creators such as individual researcher, university, or research institution lack abilities to commercialize their patents into viable businesses with those enterprises that are in need of them. Also, for enterprises side, it is hard to find the appropriate patents by searching keywords on all such occasions.
This system proposes a patent recommendation system that can identify and recommend intellectual rights appropriate to users' interested fields among a rapidly accumulating number of patent assets in a more easy and efficient manner. The proposed system extracts core contents and technology sectors from the existing pool of patents, and combines it with secondary social knowledge, which derives from tags information created by users, in order to find the best patents recommended for users.
That is to say, in an early stage where there is no accumulated tag information, the recommendation is done by utilizing content characteristics, which are identified through an analysis of key words contained in such parameters as ‘Title of Invention’ and ‘Claim’ among the various patent attributes. In order to do this, the suggested system extracts only nouns from patents and assigns a weight to each noun according to the importance of it in all patents by performing TF-IDF analysis. After that, it finds patents which have similar weights with preferred patents by a user. In this paper, this similarity is called a “Domain Similarity”.
Next, the suggested system extract technology sector's characteristics from patent document by analyzing the international technology classification code (International Patent Classification, IPC). Every patents have more than one IPC, and each user can attach more than one tag to the patents they like. Thus, each user has a set of IPC codes included in tagged patents. The suggested system manages this IPC set to analyze technology preference of each user and find the well-fitted patents for them. In order to do this, the suggeted system calcuates a ‘Technology_Similarity’ between a set of IPC codes and IPC codes contained in all other patents.
After that, when the tag information of multiple users are accumulated, the system expands the recommendations in consideration of other users’ social tag information relating to the patent that is tagged by a concerned user. The similarity between tag information of perferred ‘patents by user and other patents are called a ‘Social Simialrity’ in this paper.
Lastly, a ‘Total Similarity’ are calculated by adding these three differenent similarites and patents having the highest ‘Total Similarity’ are recommended to each user.
The suggested system are applied to a total of 1,638 korean patents obtained from the Korea Industrial Property Rights Information Service (KIPRIS) run by the Korea Intellectual Property Office. However, since this original dataset does not include tag information, we create virtual tag information and utilized this to construct the semi-virtual dataset. The proposed recommendation algorithm was implemented with JAVA, a computer programming language, and a prototype graphic user interface was also designed for this study. As the proposed system did not have dependent variables and uses virtual data, it is impossible to verify the recommendation system with a statistical method. Therefore, the study uses a scenario test method to verify the operational feasibility and recommendation effectiveness of the system.
The results of this study are expected to improve the possibility of matching promising patents with the best suitable businesses. It is assumed that users’ experiential knowledge can be accumulated, managed, and utilized in the As-Is patent system, which currently only manages standardized patent information.
|Improving Performance of Recommendation Systems Using Topic Modeling
Vol. 21, No. 3, Page: 103 ~ 118
Keywords : Big Data Analysis, Data Mining, Recommendation Systems, Text Mining, Topic Modeling
Recently, due to the development of smart devices and social media, vast amounts of information with the various forms were accumulated. Particularly, considerable research efforts are being directed towards analyzing unstructured big data to resolve various social problems. Accordingly, focus of data-driven decision-making is being moved from structured data analysis to unstructured one. Also, in the field of recommendation system, which is the typical area of data-driven decision-making, the need of using unstructured data has been steadily increased to improve system performance. Approaches to improve the performance of recommendation systems can be found in two aspects- improving algorithms and acquiring useful data with high quality. Traditionally, most efforts to improve the performance of recommendation system were made by the former approach, while the latter approach has not attracted much attention relatively. In this sense, efforts to utilize unstructured data from variable sources are very timely and necessary. Particularly, as the interests of users are directly connected with their needs, identifying the interests of the user through unstructured big data analysis can be a crew for improving performance of recommendation systems. In this sense, this study proposes the methodology of improving recommendation system by measuring interests of the user. Specially, this study proposes the method to quantify interests of the user by analyzing user's internet usage patterns, and to predict user's repurchase based upon the discovered preferences.
There are two important modules in this study. The first module predicts repurchase probability of each category through analyzing users' purchase history. We include the first module to our research scope for comparing the accuracy of traditional purchase-based prediction model to our new model presented in the second module. This procedure extracts purchase history of users. The core part of our methodology is in the second module. This module extracts users' interests by analyzing news articles the users have read. The second module constructs a correspondence matrix between topics and news articles by performing topic modeling on real world news articles. And then, the module analyzes users' news access patterns and then constructs a correspondence matrix between articles and users. After that, by merging the results of the previous processes in the second module, we can obtain a correspondence matrix between users and topics. This matrix describes users' interests in a structured manner. Finally, by using the matrix, the second module builds a model for predicting repurchase probability of each category.
In this paper, we also provide experimental results of our performance evaluation. The outline of data used our experiments is as follows. We acquired web transaction data of 5,000 panels from a company that is specialized to analyzing ranks of internet sites. At first we extracted 15,000 URLs of news articles published from July 2012 to June 2013 from the original data and we crawled main contents of the news articles. After that we selected 2,615 users who have read at least one of the extracted news articles. Among the 2,615 users, we discovered that the number of target users who purchase at least one items from our target shopping mall 'G' is 359. In the experiments, we analyzed purchase history and news access records of the 359 internet users. From the performance evaluation, we found that our prediction model using both users' interests and purchase history outperforms a prediction model using only users' purchase history from a view point of misclassification ratio. In detail, our model outperformed the traditional one in appliance, beauty, computer, culture, digital, fashion, and sports categories when artificial neural network based models were used. Similarly, our model outperformed the traditional one in beauty, computer, digital, fashion, food, and furniture categories when decision tree based models were used although the improvement is very small.
|Attention to the Internet: The Impact of Active Information Search on Investment Decisions
Vol. 21, No. 3, Page: 119 ~ 131
Keywords : Attention, Internet, Information Search, Investment Decisions, Volatility, Comovement
As the Internet becomes ubiquitous, a large volume of information is posted on the Internet with exponential growth every day. Accordingly, it is not unusual that investors in stock markets gather and compile firm-specific or market-wide information through online searches. Importantly, it becomes easier for investors to acquire value-relevant information for their investment decision with the help of powerful search tools on the Internet. Our study examines whether or not the Internet helps investors assess a firm’s value better by using firm-level data over long periods spanning from January 2004 to December 2013. To this end, we construct weekly-based search volume for information technology (IT) services firms on the Internet. We limit our focus to IT firms since they are often equipped with intangible assets and relatively less recognized to the public which makes them hard-to measure. To obtain the information on those firms, investors are more likely to consult the Internet and use the information to appreciate the firms more accurately and eventually improve their investment decisions. Prior studies have shown that changes in search volumes can reflect the various aspects of the complex human behaviors and forecast near-term values of economic indicators, including automobile sales, unemployment claims, and etc. Moreover, search volume of firm names or stock ticker symbols has been used as a direct proxy of individual investors’ attention in financial markets since, different from indirect measures such as turnover and extreme returns, they can reveal and quantify the interest of investors in an objective way. Following this line of research, this study aims to gauge whether the information retrieved from the Internet is value relevant in assessing a firm. We also use search volume for analysis but, distinguished from prior studies, explore its impact on return comovements with market returns. Given that a firm’s returns tend to comove with market returns excessively when investors are less informed about the firm, we empirically test the value of information by examining the association between Internet searches and the extent to which a firm’s returns comove. Our results show that Internet searches are negatively associated with return comovements as expected. When sample is split by the size of firms, the impact of Internet searches on return comovements is shown to be greater for large firms than small ones. Interestingly, we find a greater impact of Internet searches on return comovements for years from 2009 to 2013 than earlier years possibly due to more aggressive and informative exploit of Internet searches in obtaining financial information. We also complement our analyses by examining the association between return volatility and Internet search volumes. If Internet searches capture investors’ attention associated with a change in firm-specific fundamentals such as new product releases, stock splits and so on, a firm’s return volatility is likely to increase while search results can provide value-relevant information to investors. Our results suggest that in general, an increase in the volume of Internet searches is not positively associated with return volatility. However, we find a positive association between Internet searches and return volatility when the sample is limited to larger firms. A stronger result from larger firms implies that investors still pay less attention to the information obtained from Internet searches for small firms while the information is value relevant in assessing stock values. However, we do find any systematic differences in the magnitude of Internet searches impact on return volatility by time periods. Taken together, our results shed new light on the value of information searched from the Internet in assessing stock values. Given the informational role of the Internet in stock markets, we believe the results would guide investors to exploit Internet search tools to be better informed, as a result improving their investment decisions.
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