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Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems,
Vol. 22, No. 2, June 2016
Normalizing interval data and their use in AHP
Eun Young Kim, and Byeong Seok Ahn
Vol. 22, No. 2, Page: 1 ~ 11
http://dx.doi.org/10/13088/jiis.2016.22.2.001
Keywords : Normalization, Interval local and global weights, Interval priority weights, Extreme points, Pairwise
dominance
Abstract
Entani and Tanaka (2007) presented a new approach for obtaining interval evaluations suitable for handling uncertain data. Above all, their approach is characterized by the normalization of interval data and thus the elimination of redundant bounds. Further, interval global weights in AHP are derived by using such normalized interval data. In this paper, we present a heuristic method for finding extreme points of interval data, which basically extends the method by Entani and Tanaka (2007), and also helps to obtain normalized interval data. In the
second part of this paper, we show that the solutions to the linear program for interval global weights can be obtained by a simple inspection. In the meantime, the absolute dominance proposed by the authors is extended to pairwise dominance which makes it possible to identify at least more dominated alternatives under the same information.
Investigating the Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility on Firm’s Short- and Long-Term Performance with Online Text Analytics
Heesung Lee, Yunseon Jin, and Ohbyung Kwon
Vol. 22, No. 2, Page: 13 ~ 31
http://dx.doi.org/10/13088/jiis.2016.22.2.013
Keywords : Corporate Social Responsibility; Text Mining; Unstructured Data; Keyword Extraction; Multiple Regression; Firm Performance; Tobin’s q
Abstract
Despite expectations of short- or long-term positive effects of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on firm performance, the results of existing research into this relationship are inconsistent partly due to lack of clarity about subordinate CSR concepts. In this study, keywords related to CSR concepts are extracted from atypical sources, such as newspapers, using text mining techniques to examine the relationship between CSR and firm performance. The analysis is based on data from the New York Times, a major news publication, and Google Scholar. We used
text analytics to process unstructured data collected from open online documents to explore the effects of CSR on short- and long-term firm performance. The results suggest that the CSR index computed using the proposed text– online media - analytics predicts long-term performance very well compared to short-term performance in the absence of any internal firm reports or CSR institute reports. Our study demonstrates the text analytics are useful for evaluating CSR performance with respect to convenience and cost effectiveness.
Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling Using Qualitative Information Based on Big Data Analytics
Nam-ok Jo, and Kyung-shik Shin
Vol. 22, No. 2, Page: 33 ~ 56
http://dx.doi.org/10/13088/jiis.2016.22.2.033
Keywords : Bankruptcy Prediction, Big Data Analytics, Text Mining, Sentiment Analysis, Artificial Neural Networks
Abstract
Many researchers have focused on developing bankruptcy prediction models using modeling techniques, such as statistical methods including multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis or artificial intelligence techniques containing artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, and support vector machines (SVM), to secure enhanced performance. Most of the bankruptcy prediction models in academic studies have used financial ratios as main input variables. The bankruptcy of firms is associated with firm’s financial states and the external economic situation. However, the inclusion of qualitative information, such as the economic atmosphere, has not been actively discussed despite the fact that exploiting only financial ratios has some drawbacks. Accounting
information, such as financial ratios, is based on past data, and it is usually determined one year before bankruptcy.
Thus, a time lag exists between the point of closing financial statements and the point of credit evaluation. In addition, financial ratios do not contain environmental factors, such as external economic situations. Therefore, using only financial ratios may be insufficient in constructing a bankruptcy prediction model, because they essentially
reflect past corporate internal accounting information while neglecting recent information. Thus, qualitative information must be added to the conventional bankruptcy prediction model to supplement
accounting information. Due to the lack of an analytic mechanism for obtaining and processing qualitative information from various information sources, previous studies have only used qualitative information. However, recently, big data analytics, such as text mining techniques, have been drawing much attention in academia and industry, with an increasing amount of unstructured text data available on the web. A few previous studies have sought to adopt big data analytics in business prediction modeling. Nevertheless, the use of qualitative information on the web for business prediction modeling is still deemed to be in the primary stage, restricted to limited applications, such as stock prediction and movie revenue prediction applications. Thus, it is necessary to apply big data analytics techniques, such as text mining, to various business prediction problems, including credit risk evaluation. Analytic methods are required for processing qualitative information represented in unstructured text form due to the complexity of managing and processing unstructured text data.
This study proposes a bankruptcy prediction model for Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms using both quantitative information, such as financial ratios, and qualitative information acquired from economic news articles. The performance of the proposed method depends on how well information types are transformed from qualitative into quantitative information that is suitable for incorporating into the bankruptcy prediction model.
We employ big data analytics techniques, especially text mining, as a mechanism for processing qualitative
information. The sentiment index is provided at the industry level by extracting from a large amount of text data to quantify the external economic atmosphere represented in the media. The proposed method involves keyword-based sentiment analysis using a domain-specific sentiment lexicon to extract sentiment from economic news articles. The generated sentiment lexicon is designed to represent sentiment for the construction business by considering the relationship between the occurring term and the actual situation with respect to the economic
condition of the industry rather than the inherent semantics of the term.
The experimental results proved that incorporating qualitative information based on big data analytics into the traditional bankruptcy prediction model based on accounting information is effective for enhancing the predictive performance. The sentiment variable extracted from economic news articles had an impact on corporate bankruptcy.
In particular, a negative sentiment variable improved the accuracy of corporate bankruptcy prediction because the corporate bankruptcy of construction firms is sensitive to poor economic conditions. The bankruptcy prediction model using qualitative information based on big data analytics contributes to the field, in that it reflects not only
relatively recent information but also environmental factors, such as external economic conditions.
Effects of Customers’ Relationship Networks on Organizational Performance: Focusing on Facebook Fan Page
Su-Hyeon Jeon, and Kee-Young Kwahk
Vol. 22, No. 2, Page: 57 ~ 79
http://dx.doi.org/10/13088/jiis.2016.22.2.057
Keywords : Relationship Commitment, Social Network Analysis (SNA), Social Media, Facebook, Intelligent Marketing Service.
Abstract
It is a rising trend that the number of users using one of the social media channels, the Social Network Service, so called the SNS, is getting increased. As per to this social trend, more companies have interest in this networking platform and start to invest their funds in it. It has received much attention as a tool spreading and expanding the message that a company wants to deliver to its customers and has been recognized as an important channel in terms of the relationship marketing with them. The environment of media that is radically changing these days makes possible for companies to approach their customers in various ways. Particularly, the social network service, which has been developed rapidly, provides the environment that customers can freely talk about products. For companies, it also works as a channel that gives customized information to customers. To succeed in the online environment, companies need to not only build the relationship between companies and customers but focus on the relationship between customers as well. In response to the online environment with the continuous development of technology, companies have tirelessly made the novel marketing strategy. Especially, as the one-to-one marketing to customers become available, it is more important for companies to maintain the relationship marketing with their customers. Among many SNS, Facebook, which many companies use as a communication channel, provides a fan page service for each company that supports its business. Facebook fan page is the platform that the event, information and announcement can be shared with customers using texts, videos, and pictures. Companies open their own fan pages in order to inform their companies and businesses. Such page functions as the websites of companies and has a characteristic of their brand communities such as blogs as well. As Facebook has become the major communication medium with customers, companies recognize its importance as the effective marketing channel, but they still need to investigate their business performances by using Facebook. Although there are infinite potentials in Facebook fan page that even has a function as a community between users, which other platforms do not, it is incomplete to regard companies’ Facebook fan pages as communities and analyze them. In this study, it explores the relationship among customers through the network of the Facebook fan page users. The previous studies on a company’s Facebook fan page were focused on finding out the effective operational direction by analyzing the use state of the company. However, in this study, it draws out the structural variable of the network, which customer committment can be measured by applying the social network analysis methodology and investigates the influence of the structural characteristics of network on the business performance of companies in an empirical way. Through each company’s Facebook fan page, the network of users who engaged in the communication with each company is exploited and it is the one-mode undirected binary network that
respectively regards users and the relationship of them in terms of their marketing activities as the node and link. In this network, it draws out the structural variable of network that can explain the customer commitment, who pressed “like,” made comments and shared the Facebook marketing message, of each company by calculating density, global clustering coefficient, mean geodesic distance, diameter. By exploiting companies’ historical performance such as net income and Tobin’s Q indicator as the result variables, this study investigates influence on companies’ business performances. For this purpose, it collects the network data on the subjects of 54 companies among KOSPI-listed companies, which have posted more than 100 articles on their Facebook fan pages during the data collection period. Then it draws out the network indicator of each company. The indicator related to companies’ performances is calculated, based on the posted value on DART website of the Financial Supervisory Service. From the academic perspective, this study suggests a new approach through the social network analysis methodology to researchers who attempt to study the business-purpose utilization of the social media channel. From the practical perspective, this study proposes the more substantive marketing performance measurements to companies performing marketing activities through the social media and it is expected that it will bring a foundation of establishing smart business strategies by using the network indicators.
The Relationship between Internet Search Volumes and Stock Price Changes: An Empirical Study on KOSDAQ Market
Saemi Jeon, Yeojin Chung, and Dongyoup Lee
Vol. 22, No. 2, Page: 81 ~ 96
http://dx.doi.org/10/13088/jiis.2016.22.2.081
Keywords : Internet Search Volume, Investors’ attention, Price pressure, Stock Price, KOSDAQ
Abstract
As the internet has become widespread and easy to access everywhere, it is common for people to search information via online search engines such as Google and Naver in everyday life. Recent studies have used online search volume of specific keyword as a measure of the internet users’ attention in order to predict disease outbreaks such as flu and cancer, an unemployment rate, and an index of a nation’s economic condition, and etc. For stock traders, web search is also one of major information resources to obtain data about individual stock items. Therefore, search volume of a stock item can reflect the amount of investors’ attention on it. The investor attention has been regarded as a crucial factor influencing on stock price but it has been measured by indirect proxies such as market capitalization, trading volume, advertising expense, and etc. It has been theoretically and empirically proved that an increase of investors’ attention on a stock item brings temporary increase of the stock price and the price recovers in the long run. Recent development of internet environment enables to measure the investor attention directly by the internet search volume of individual stock item, which has been used to show the attention-induced price pressure. Previous studies focus mainly on Dow Jones and NASDAQ market in the United States. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the individual investors’ attention measured by the internet search volumes and stock price changes of individual stock items in the KOSDAQ market in Korea, where the proportion of the trades by individual investors are about 90% of the total. In addition, we examine the difference between industries in the influence of investors’ attention on stock return. The internet search volume of stocks were gathered from “Naver Trend” service weekly between January 2007 and June 2015. The regression model with the error term with AR(1) covariance structure is used to analyze the data since the weekly prices in a stock item are systematically correlated. The market capitalization, trading volume, the increment of trading volume, and the month in which each trade occurs are included in the model as control variables. The fitted model shows that an abnormal increase of search volume of a stock item has a positive influence on the stock return and the amount of the influence varies among the industry. The stock items in IT software, construction, and distribution industries have shown to be more influenced by the abnormally large internet search volume than the average across the industries. On the other hand, the stock items in IT hardware, manufacturing, entertainment, finance, and communication industries are less influenced by the abnormal search volume than the average. In order to verify price pressure caused by investors’ attention in KOSDAQ, the stock return of the current week is modelled using the abnormal search volume observed one to four weeks ahead. On average, the abnormally large increment of the search volume increased the stock return of the current week and one week later, and it decreased the stock return in two and three weeks later. There is no significant relationship with the stock return after 4 weeks. This relationship differs among the industries. An abnormal search volume brings particularly severe price reversal on the stocks in the IT software industry, which are often to be targets of irrational investments by individual investors. An abnormal search volume caused less severe price reversal on the stocks in the manufacturing and IT hardware industries than on average across the industries. The price reversal was not observed in the communication, finance, entertainment, and transportation industries, which are known to be influenced largely by macro-economic factors such as oil price and currency exchange rate. The result of this study can be utilized to construct an intelligent trading system based on the big data gathered from web search engines, social network services, and internet communities. Particularly, the difference of price reversal effect between industries may provide useful information to make a portfolio and build an investment strategy.
Sentiment analysis on movie review through building modified sentiment dictionary by movie genre
Sang Hoon Lee, Jing Cui, and Jong Woo Kim
Vol. 22, No. 2, Page: 97 ~ 113
http://dx.doi.org/10/13088/jiis.2016.22.2.097
Keywords : Sentiment Analysis, Sentiment Dictionary, PMI, SO-PMI
Abstract
Due to the growth of internet data and the rapid development of internet technology, “big data” analysis is actively conducted to analyze enormous data for various purposes. Especially in recent years, a number of studies have been performed on the applications of text mining techniques in order to overcome the limitations of existing structured data analysis. Various studies on sentiment analysis, the part of text mining techniques, are actively studied to score opinions based on the distribution of polarity of words in documents. Usually, the sentiment analysis uses sentiment dictionary contains positivity and negativity of vocabularies. As a part of such studies, this study tries to construct sentiment dictionary which is customized to specific data domain. Using a common sentiment dictionary for sentiment analysis without considering data domain characteristic cannot reflect contextual expression only used in the specific data domain. So, we can expect using a modified sentiment dictionary customized to data domain can lead the improvement of sentiment analysis efficiency. Therefore, this study aims to suggest a way to construct customized dictionary to reflect characteristics of data domain. Especially, in this study, movie review data are divided by genre and construct genre-customized dictionaries. The performance of customized dictionary
in sentiment analysis is compared with a common sentiment dictionary. In this study, IMDb data are chosen as the subject of analysis, and movie reviews are categorized by genre. Six genres in IMDb, ‘action’,‘animation’, ‘comedy’, ‘drama’, ‘horror’, and ‘sci-fi’ are selected. Five highest ranking movies and five lowest ranking movies per genre are selected as training data set and two years’ movie data from 2012 September 2012 to June 2014 are collected as test data set. Using SO-PMI (Semantic Orientation from Point-wise Mutual Information) technique, we build customized sentiment dictionary per genre and compare prediction accuracy on review rating. As a result of the analysis, the prediction using customized dictionaries improves prediction accuracy. The performance improvement is 2.82% in overall and is statistical significant. Especially, the customized dictionary on ‘sci-fi’ leads the highest accuracy improvement among six genres. Even though this study shows the usefulness of customized dictionaries in sentiment analysis, further studies are required to generalize the results. In this study, we only consider adjectives as additional terms in customized sentiment dictionary. Other part of text such as verb and adverb can be considered to improve sentiment analysis performance. Also, we need to apply customized sentiment dictionary to other domain such as product reviews.
ESD(Exponential Standard Deviation) Band centered at Exponential Moving Average
Jungyoun Lee, and Sunmyung Hwang
Vol. 22, No. 2, Page: 115 ~ 125
http://dx.doi.org/10/13088/jiis.2016.22.2.115
Keywords : Bollinger Band, ESD(Exponential Standard Deviation), Simple standard deviation, Discrete time fourier transform, Exponential moving average
Abstract
The Bollinger Band indicating the current price position in the recent price action range is obtained by adding/substracting the simple standard deviation (SSD) to/from the simple moving average (SMA). In this paper, we first compare the characteristics of the SMA and the exponential moving average (EMA) in the operator’s point of view. A basic equation is obtained between the interval length N of the SMA operator and the weighting factor p of the EMA operator, that makes the centers of the 1st order momentums of each operator impulse respoinse identical. For equivalent N and p, frequency response examples are obtained and compared by using the discrete time Fourier transform. Based on observation that the SMA operator reacts more excessively than the EMA operator, we propose a novel exponential standard deviation (ESD) band centered at the EMA and derive an auto recursive formula for the proposed ESD band. Practical examples for the ESD band show that it has a smoother bound on the price action range than the Bollinger Band. Comparisons are also made for the gap corrected chart to show the advantageous feature of the ESD band even in the case of gap occurrence. Trading techniques developed for the Bollinger Band can be straight forwardly applied to those for the ESD band.
Deep Learning Architectures and Applications
SungMahn Ahn
Vol. 22, No. 2, Page: 127 ~ 142
http://dx.doi.org/10/13088/jiis.2016.22.2.127
Keywords : Deep learning, Convolutional neural networks, Recurrent neural networks, Error backpropagation algorithm
Abstract
Deep learning model is a kind of neural networks that allows multiple hidden layers. There are various deep learning architectures such as convolutional neural networks, deep belief networks and
recurrent neural networks. Those have been applied to fields like computer vision, automatic speech recognition, natural language processing, audio recognition and bioinformatics where they have been shown to produce state-of-the-art results on various tasks. Among those architectures, convolutional neural networks and recurrent neural networks are classified as the supervised learning model. And in recent years, those supervised learning models have gained more popularity than unsupervised learning models such as deep belief networks, because supervised learning models have shown fashionable applications in such fields mentioned above.
Deep learning models can be trained with backpropagation algorithm. Backpropagation is an abbreviation for “backward propagation of errors” and a common method of training artificial neural networks used in conjunction with an optimization method such as gradient descent. The method calculates the gradient of an error function with respect to all the weights in the network. The gradient is fed to the optimization method which in turn uses it to update the weights, in an attempt to minimize the error function.
Convolutional neural networks use a special architecture which is particularly well-adapted to classify images. Using this architecture makes convolutional networks fast to train. This, in turn, helps us train deep, muti-layer networks, which are very good at classifying images. These days, deep convolutional networks are used in most neural networks for image recognition. Convolutional neural networks use three basic ideas: local receptive fields, shared weights, and pooling. By local receptive fields, we mean that each neuron in the first(or any) hidden layer will be connected to a small region of the input(or previous layer’s) neurons. Shared weights mean that we’re going to use the same weights and bias for each of the local receptive field. This means that all the neurons in the hidden layer detect exactly the same feature, just at different locations in the input image. In addition to the convolutional layers just described, convolutional neural networks also contain pooling layers. Pooling layers are usually used immediately after convolutional layers. What the pooling layers do is to simplify the information in the output from the convolutional layer. Recent convolutional network architectures have 10 to 20 hidden layers and billions of connections between units. Training deep learning networks has taken weeks several years ago, but thanks to progress in GPU and algorithm enhancement, training time has reduced to several hours.
Neural networks with time-varying behavior are known as recurrent neural networks or RNNs. A recurrent neural network is a class of artificial neural network where connections between units form a
directed cycle. This creates an internal state of the network which allows it to exhibit dynamic temporal behavior. Unlike feedforward neural networks, RNNs can use their internal memory to process arbitrary sequences of inputs. Early RNN models turned out to be very difficult to train, harder even than deep feedforward networks. The reason is the unstable gradient problem such as vanishing gradient and exploding gradient. The gradient can get smaller and smaller as it is propagated back through layers. This makes learning in early layers extremely slow. The problem actually gets worse in RNNs, since gradients aren’t just propagated backward through layers, they’re propagated backward through time. If the network runs for a long time, that can make the gradient extremely unstable and hard to learn from. It has been possible to incorporate an idea known as long short-term memory units (LSTMs) into RNNs. LSTMs make it much easier to get good results when training RNNs, and many recent papers make use of LSTMs or related ideas.
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